PDF Ebook , by Jeffrey Ma
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, by Jeffrey Ma
PDF Ebook , by Jeffrey Ma
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Product details
File Size: 665 KB
Print Length: 276 pages
Publisher: St. Martin's Press (July 9, 2010)
Publication Date: February 14, 2012
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B003UES8U2
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#586,874 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
With all of the hype about Big Data, it's never been more essential to dial it down a notch. How can we make the right business decisions when we don't understand Small Data basic math? When uncertainty and risk are inherent in everything we do?These are fundamental questions at the heart of Jeff's book. The gambling, finance, and sports examples underscore his points. No, life isn't as simple as playing Blackjack, but many of the same principle still apply. My favorite example: The idiot Cubs' fan who didn't understand rudimentary probability.I read quite a few business books, so not all of the concepts were new to me. Still, this is an important text for those those looking to understand why people make suboptimal business decisions–and to avoid making the same mistakes.
Everyone should read this and understand the power of Statistics.
Loved the book. My wife and I own a small laundromat and I'm also just finishing an Accounting Degree at Brigham Young University-Idaho and had been putting off taking my required statistics class. Last semester I bit the bullet and made it through with a B+. Reading through this book made me wish I had read it before taking my statistics class. It helped me to gain a deeper appreciation for statistics and their uses and now I want to take an advanced statistics course to increase my knowledge of the subject. Ma doesn't make the topic too heavy but he shows the power of numbers in a simplified fashion that would make any kind of a math geek step back and smile.Great read would recommend it to any small business owner like myself or any other big decision maker for any company.
Each chapter is a gem. Ma weaves so many different areas together to tell such a compelling story that you end up learning something on every page.Politics, sports, gambling, finance -- he connects them in a delicate yet thorough way, and he doesn't just analyze existing or common stories, he interviews all the key players, researchers, managers, gamblers, and traders to uncover hidden depths.The chapter on the hot hand is the single best discussion of the topic I have ever seen, and it is a topic that has seen a lot of ink spilled. And his view on it, coming from what you might think is just a pure analytical, mathematical perspective, is at the same time surprising and alluring. If you read nothing else from the book but the hot hand chapter, it is already worth the money.And every chapter is like that. I have read some academic intuition research and general intuition studies, and Ma's chapter on intuition is the most insightful thing about it I have ever read.I don't want to tell you his conclusions about the hot hand and intuition, because I wouldn't have wanted to know them before I read it, but it is worth reading and enjoying.Ma has a creative mind and a unique approach to problems that is calmly analytical, and he has the same measured approach to emotions, neither vilifying nor worshiping them, but acknowledging them as an input to be weighed and analyzed.His blackjack exploits introduce the chapters and are not only thrilling to read but also help plant an image in your mind about the particular point being made. Unlike many other business books, you will actually remember the lessons and suggestions here, because they are expressed in such a holistic and visual way.Excellent book.
There are two types of books you can read about business statistics: those that describe the science and those that describe the application. The House Advantage is fundamentally about the later. For a couple of years now I've been trying to implement a data driven culture at my company. Getting to the data is the easy part for many, understanding what to do with it is the hard part. Some of the mistakes we make are pure science (looking at averages rather than distributions) but most of them are about application.The House Advantage is primarily about the subtlety of using statistics to drive decisions. Through many examples from his days as a professional card counter and sports statistician Jeff shows practical examples of where statistics can be used in the wrong way even with the best of intentions. What THA does is layout a framework for how to approach decision making through statistics. While the book is not focused on specific business examples, it's a small leap to understand how to apply the ones Jeff outlines.As an example, consider analyzing customer churn rates in a month to month service. When doing so, one needs to understand the statistical distribution of how long customers stay with you and why they decide to leave. If you pull all your churn rate data and analyze it you might determine that customers on average stay with your service 4.6 months. But is there omission bias here? What about customers that haven't left yet? Perhaps you just added a feature that would increase retention 2x but you're only 2 weeks into offering that feature.This kind of scenario and the application based thinking is what this book is about. It's meant to be consumed whole in the same way that statistics are meant to be consumed in context. For anyone serious about using statistics in the business the right way, this is a thoughtful primer to read before you wade into the data.
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